Add BetaCalc36,24,06 . Optimize MG

This commit is contained in:
2025-05-09 17:40:13 -04:00
parent f30d753352
commit e60d95b143
7 changed files with 517 additions and 17 deletions

View File

@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
public bool UseLowSlopeBetaCheck{get;set;}
public int LowSlopeBetaDays{get;set;}
public double LowSlopeBetaThreshhold{get;set;}
public bool UseCalcBeta{get;set;} // if this is set then use the betaCalc36 values from the beta generator that have been added to fundamentals, otherwise use the Beta from fundamentals (Yahoo/FinViz)
// MACD Settings : If MACD is being used then the process configures the MACD as per setup and eliminates candidates with a weak sell/strong sell signal in the signal days setting.
public bool UseMACD{get;set;}
@@ -85,6 +86,8 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
UseLowSlopeBetaCheck=true; // true is the default. this yields the most optimal performance in backtests
LowSlopeBetaDays=15; // 15 is the default. This yields the most optimal performance in backtests
LowSlopeBetaThreshhold=1.00; // (1.00) is the default This yields the most optimal performance in backtests
UseCalcBeta=true; // This is set to true by default
UseMACD=true; // true is the default
MACDSetup="(12,26,9)"; // (12,26,9)
MACDSignalDays=12; // 12 is the default
@@ -126,6 +129,7 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("UseLowSlopeBetaCheck",UseLowSlopeBetaCheck.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("LowSlopeBetaDays",LowSlopeBetaDays.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("LowSlopeBetaThreshhold",LowSlopeBetaThreshhold.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("UseCalcBeta",UseCalcBeta.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("UseMACD",UseMACD.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("MACDSetup",MACDSetup.ToString()));
nvpCollection.Add(new NVP("MACDSignalDays",MACDSignalDays.ToString()));
@@ -167,6 +171,8 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
mgConfiguration.UseLowSlopeBetaCheck=nvpDictionary["UseLowSlopeBetaCheck"].Get<Boolean>();
mgConfiguration.LowSlopeBetaDays=nvpDictionary["LowSlopeBetaDays"].Get<int>();
mgConfiguration.LowSlopeBetaThreshhold=nvpDictionary["LowSlopeBetaThreshhold"].Get<double>();
if(nvpDictionary.ContainsKey("UseCalcBeta"))mgConfiguration.UseCalcBeta=nvpDictionary["UseCalcBeta"].Get<bool>();
else mgConfiguration.UseCalcBeta=true;
mgConfiguration.UseMACD=nvpDictionary["UseMACD"].Get<Boolean>();
mgConfiguration.MACDSetup=nvpDictionary["MACDSetup"].Get<String>();
mgConfiguration.MACDSignalDays=nvpDictionary["MACDSignalDays"].Get<int>();
@@ -208,6 +214,7 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("UseLowSlopeBetaCheck,{0}",UseLowSlopeBetaCheck));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("LowSlopeBetaDays,{0}",LowSlopeBetaDays));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("LowSlopeBetaThreshhold,{0}",LowSlopeBetaThreshhold));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("UseCalcBeta,{0}",UseCalcBeta));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("UseMACD,{0}",UseMACD));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("MACDSetup,{0}",MACDSetup));

View File

@@ -59,6 +59,345 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
}
return momentumCandidates;
}
// This interface is called by the Backtest
public static MomentumCandidates GenerateMomentum(DateTime tradeDate,List<String> symbolsHeld,MGConfiguration config)
{
DateGenerator dateGenerator=new DateGenerator();
List<String> symbols=PricingDA.GetSymbols();
MomentumCandidates momentumCandidates=new MomentumCandidates();
MomentumCandidates highPECandidates=new MomentumCandidates();
DateTime startDateOfReturns=dateGenerator.GetPrevMonthEnd(tradeDate,2);
List<String> noTradeSymbols=Utility.ToList(config.NoTradeSymbols);
List<String> noTradeFinancialSymbols=Utility.ToList(config.NoTradeFinancialSymbols);
CandidateViolations candidateViolations = new CandidateViolations();
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Fetching data...");
// Filter out symbols where we do not have a price on trade date
Profiler profiler = new Profiler();
Dictionary<String,DateTime> latestDates = PricingDA.GetLatestDates(symbols);
symbols=symbols.Where(x => latestDates.ContainsKey(x) && latestDates[x].Date>=tradeDate.Date).ToList();
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Loaded Pricing Dates in {Utility.FormatNumber(profiler.End(),0,true)} (ms)");
// Prefetch a subset of fundamentals where each fundamental.asof is no greater than tradeDate
profiler.Reset();
FundamentalsV2 fundamentals = FundamentalDA.GetFundamentalsMaxDateV2(tradeDate);
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Loaded Fundamentals in {Utility.FormatNumber(profiler.End(),0,true)} (ms)");
// Prefetch the Company Profiles
profiler.Reset();
Dictionary<String,CompanyProfile> companyProfiles = CompanyProfileDA.GetCompanyProfiles(symbols);
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Loaded Company Profiles in {Utility.FormatNumber(profiler.End(),0,true)} (ms)");
// Prefetch the Analyst Ratings
profiler.Reset();
Dictionary<String,AnalystRatings> analystRatingsDictionary = AnalystRatingsDA.GetAnalystRatingsDowngradesMaxDateNoZacks(symbols, tradeDate);
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Loaded Analyst Ratings in {Utility.FormatNumber(profiler.End(),0,true)} (ms)");
// Prefetch Zacks Ranks
profiler.Reset();
Dictionary<String,ZacksRank> zacksRanksDictionary = ZacksRankDA.GetZacksRankOnOrBefore(symbols, tradeDate);
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,$"Loaded Zacks Ranks in {Utility.FormatNumber(profiler.End(),0,true)} (ms)");
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("Generate momentum.. examining candidates"));
// Go through the universe of stocks
for(int index=0;index<symbols.Count;index++)
{
String symbol=symbols[index];
if(0==(index%500))Console.WriteLine("Processing item {0} of {1}",index+1,symbols.Count);
// Check if the symbol is held in any open positions
if(symbolsHeld.Any(x=>x.Equals(symbol, StringComparison.CurrentCultureIgnoreCase)))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate already held."));
continue;
}
// Check if the symbol is in the no trade list (i.e.) Bitcoin etc.,
if(noTradeSymbols.Any(x=>x.Equals(symbol, StringComparison.CurrentCultureIgnoreCase)))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate in NoTradeSymbol."));
continue;
}
// Check MarketCap, EBITDA, PE, and Revenue Per Share
FundamentalV2 fundamental = default;
if(fundamentals.ContainsKey(symbol))fundamental = fundamentals[symbol];
if(null==fundamental)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate no fundamental."));
continue;
}
if(!(fundamental.MarketCap>=config.MarketCapLowerLimit))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate MarketCapLimit."));
continue;
}
if(config.UseEBITDAScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.EBITDA)||fundamental.EBITDA<=0))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate EBITDA violation."));
continue;
}
if(config.UseRevenuePerShareScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.RevenuePerShare)||fundamental.RevenuePerShare<0.00))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate RevenuePerShare violation."));
continue;
}
// Initial PE screening. This screen checks for existance of PE and if it is availabe it must be >0.00 . There is another PE based on limits further below
if(config.UsePEScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.PE)||fundamental.PE<=0.00))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate PE violation."));
continue;
}
// Exclude any company in the "Financial" sector
CompanyProfile companyProfile = default;
if(companyProfiles.ContainsKey(symbol))companyProfile = companyProfiles[symbol];
if(null!=companyProfile&&null!=companyProfile.Sector&&noTradeFinancialSymbols.Any(x=>x.Equals(companyProfile.Sector)))
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate Financial Sector violation."));
continue;
}
// Retrieve prices
Prices prices=null;
prices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(symbol,tradeDate,(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount+20);
if(null==prices || prices.Count!=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount+20)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate missing price history."));
continue;
}
// Fetch single day price
Price price=prices[0]; // GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrice(symbol,tradeDate);
if(null==price)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate missing price on trade date."));
continue;
}
// Filter penny stocks - don't trade anything less than $1.00
if(price.Close<1.00||price.Open<1.00)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate penny stock violation."));
continue;
}
// calculate the one day return
double return1D=prices.GetReturn1D();
// Liquidity check - if any day has volume < 10,000 then we reject it
if(((from Price xPrice in prices where xPrice.Volume<10000 select xPrice).Count())>1)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Liquidity violation."));
continue;
}
// Calculate velocity as a percentage range of the open price within the 252+20 day range of prices - This is used for display purposes
double velocity;
Prices velocityPrices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(symbol,tradeDate,(int)MomentumGenerator.MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount+20);
double priceHigh=(from Price selectPrice in velocityPrices select selectPrice.Open).Max();
double priceLow=(from Price selectPrice in velocityPrices select selectPrice.Open).Min();
if(0.00==priceHigh-priceLow)velocity=0.00;
else velocity=((price.Open-priceLow)*(100/(priceHigh-priceLow)))/100.00;
// Price slopes - These are used for display purposes
double[] pricesArray=null;
LeastSquaresResult leastSquaresResult;
// Get the benchmark pricing low pricing data and check the slope of previous lows; only if Beta of candidate is >= LowSlopeBetaThreshhold
// The idea behind this check is that a high beta stock will track to the benchmark. So if the benchmark lows are forming a downward pattern then we
// assume that this is a somewhat bearish condition. The config has the setting at a 15 day check and the threshold beta set to 1.00
// The BetaCalc36 is calculated as part of the monthly fundamental run.
double beta = fundamental.Beta;
if(config.UseCalcBeta)beta=fundamental.BetaCalc36;
if(config.UseLowSlopeBetaCheck && beta >= config.LowSlopeBetaThreshhold)
{
Prices benchmarkPrices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(config.Benchmark,tradeDate,config.LowSlopeBetaDays);
pricesArray=Numerics.ToDouble(benchmarkPrices.GetPricesLow());
leastSquaresResult=Numerics.LeastSquares(pricesArray);
double slopeBmk=leastSquaresResult.Slope;
if(slopeBmk<0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Beta threshhold violation."));
continue;
}
}
// *** MACDSignal detection
if(config.UseMACD)
{
MACDSetup macdSetup=new MACDSetup(config.MACDSetup);
MACDSignals macdSignals=MACDGenerator.GenerateMACD(prices,macdSetup);
Signals signalsMACD = SignalGenerator.GenerateSignals(macdSignals);
signalsMACD=new Signals(signalsMACD.Take(config.MACDSignalDays).ToList());
int weakSellSignals=(from Signal signal in signalsMACD where signal.IsWeakSell() select signal).Count();
int strongSellSignals=(from Signal signal in signalsMACD where signal.IsStrongSell() select signal).Count();
if(config.MACDRejectWeakSellSignals && weakSellSignals>0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"MACD Reject Weak Sell violation."));
continue;
}
if(config.MACDRejectStrongSellSignals && strongSellSignals>0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"MACD Reject Strong Sell violation."));
continue;
}
}
// *** Stochastics oscillator
if(config.UseStochastics)
{
Stochastics stochastics=StochasticsGenerator.GenerateStochastics(prices);
Signals signalsStochastics=new Signals(SignalGenerator.GenerateSignals(stochastics).OrderByDescending(x => x.SignalDate).ToList());
signalsStochastics=new Signals(signalsStochastics.Take(config.StochasticsSignalDays).ToList());
int weakSellCount=(from Signal signal in signalsStochastics where signal.IsWeakSell() select signal).Count();
int strongSellCount=(from Signal signal in signalsStochastics where signal.IsStrongSell() select signal).Count();
if(config.StochasticsRejectStrongSells&&strongSellCount>0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Stochastics Oscillator Reject Strong Sell violation."));
continue;
}
if(config.StochasticsRejectWeakSells&&weakSellCount>0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Stochastics Oscillator Reject Weak Sell violation."));
continue;
}
}
// Analyst Ratings - "Downgrades" that are more than a year old (252 days) are not considered. Mean reversion.... bad companies improve, good companies decline.
DateTime minRatingDate=dateGenerator.GenerateHistoricalDate(startDateOfReturns,(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount);
AnalystRatings analystRatings= default;
if(analystRatingsDictionary.ContainsKey(symbol))analystRatings=analystRatingsDictionary[symbol];
if(default!=analystRatings)
{
analystRatings.RemoveAll(x => x.Date<minRatingDate);
AnalystRating rating=null;
if(null!=analystRatings)rating=analystRatings.FirstOrDefault();
if(null!=rating)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"AnalystRating Downgrade violation within set period."));
continue;
}
}
// The cumulative returns for the ranking skip to the previous month to eliminate short term reversal anomaly (Wesley Gray : Quantum Momentum)
prices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(symbol,startDateOfReturns,(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount);
if(null==prices||(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount!=prices.Count)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Insufficient pricing, cannot determine rank."));
continue;
}
// check for outliers in the return stream
float[] returns = default;
returns=prices.GetReturns();
if((from float value in returns where Math.Abs(value)>.50 select value).Count()>0)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate pricing contains outliers in the returns."));
continue;
}
// Cumulative return
double cumulativeReturn=prices.GetCumulativeReturn();
if(cumulativeReturn<.10)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate cumulative returns below threshhold."));
continue;
}
// Zacks Rank. This is for informational purposes for now but may further it's use in the future.
ZacksRank zacksRank = default;
if(zacksRanksDictionary.ContainsKey(symbol))
{
zacksRank = zacksRanksDictionary[symbol];
}
// Apply the PEScreening last because there an option to permit the inclusion of the high PE candidates if we have no other available candidates.
// The idea is to try to avoid high PE stocks as they are more likey to introduce drawdowns as backtests have shown.
if(config.UseMaxPEScreen && !double.IsNaN(fundamental.PE) && fundamental.PE>config.MaxPE)
{
candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"PE violation."));
MomentumCandidate highPECandidate=new MomentumCandidate();
highPECandidate.AnalysisDate=tradeDate;
highPECandidate.Symbol=symbol;
highPECandidate.CumReturn252=prices.GetCumulativeReturn();
highPECandidate.DayCount=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount;
highPECandidate.IDIndicator=IDIndicator.Calculate(prices);
highPECandidate.Score=ScoreIndicator.Calculate(prices);
highPECandidate.MaxDrawdown=prices.MaxDrawdown();
highPECandidate.MaxUpside=prices.MaxUpside();
highPECandidate.PE=fundamental.PE;
highPECandidate.Beta=beta;
highPECandidate.Velocity=velocity;
highPECandidate.Volume=price.Volume;
highPECandidate.Return1D=return1D;
if(null!=zacksRank)highPECandidate.ZacksRank=zacksRank.Rank;
highPECandidates.Add(highPECandidate);
continue;
}
// *********************************************************************** C A N D I D A T E A C C E P T A N C E *******************************************************
// At this point whatever remains is taken so initialize the candidate and add to list
MomentumCandidate momentumCandidate=new MomentumCandidate();
momentumCandidate.AnalysisDate=tradeDate;
momentumCandidate.Symbol=symbol;
momentumCandidate.CumReturn252=prices.GetCumulativeReturn();
momentumCandidate.DayCount=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount;
momentumCandidate.IDIndicator=IDIndicator.Calculate(prices);
momentumCandidate.Score=ScoreIndicator.Calculate(prices);
momentumCandidate.MaxDrawdown=prices.MaxDrawdown();
momentumCandidate.MaxUpside=prices.MaxUpside();
momentumCandidate.PE=fundamental.PE;
momentumCandidate.Beta=beta;
momentumCandidate.Velocity=velocity;
momentumCandidate.Volume=price.Volume;
momentumCandidate.Return1D=return1D;
if(null!=zacksRank)momentumCandidate.ZacksRank=zacksRank.Rank;
momentumCandidates.Add(momentumCandidate);
} // for all symbols
if(0!=candidateViolations.Count)
{
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,"**************** C A N D I D A T E S U M M A R Y ************************");
IEnumerable<Tuple<string, int>> groups = candidateViolations.GroupBy(x => x.ReasonCategory).OrderByDescending(group => group.Count()).Select(group => Tuple.Create(group.Key, group.Count()));
foreach(Tuple<string, int> group in groups)
{
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("Group: {0} Count:{1}",group.Item1, group.Item2));
}
}
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Considered : {momentumCandidates.Count+candidateViolations.Count}"));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Disqualified : {candidateViolations.Count}"));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Eligible : {momentumCandidates.Count}"));
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,"******************************************************************************************************");
// ********************************************************* E N D C A N D I D A T E S E L E C T I O N C R I T E R I A ****************************************
// If we wind up with less than the number of required candidates then check the StrictMaxPE
// flag and, if allowed, add the highPECandidate (that we've accumulated but skipped) to the momentumCandidates ordering them by the Lowest PE
if(!config.StrictMaxPE && momentumCandidates.Count<config.MaxPositions && highPECandidates.Count>0)
{
int takeCandidates=config.MaxPositions-momentumCandidates.Count;
highPECandidates=new MomentumCandidates(highPECandidates.OrderBy(x=>x.PE).Take(takeCandidates).ToList());
momentumCandidates.AddRange(highPECandidates);
if(config.Verbose)MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("High PE Candidates,{0}",Utility.FromList((from MomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in highPECandidates select momentumCandidate.Symbol).ToList())));
}
QualityIndicator qualityIndicator=new QualityIndicator(config.QualityIndicatorType);
if(qualityIndicator.Quality.Equals(QualityIndicator.QualityType.IDIndicator))
{
momentumCandidates=new MomentumCandidates((from MomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in momentumCandidates orderby momentumCandidate.IDIndicator ascending, momentumCandidate.CumReturn252 descending, momentumCandidate.Return1D descending, momentumCandidate.Volume descending select momentumCandidate).ToList());
}
else
{
momentumCandidates=new MomentumCandidates((from MomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in momentumCandidates orderby momentumCandidate.Score descending,momentumCandidate.CumReturn252 descending,momentumCandidate.Return1D descending,momentumCandidate.Volume descending select momentumCandidate).ToList());
}
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("MomentumGenertor.GenerateMomentum:{0} candidates",momentumCandidates.Count()));
return momentumCandidates;
}
/*
// This interface is called by the Backtest
public static MomentumCandidates GenerateMomentum(DateTime tradeDate,List<String> symbolsHeld,MGConfiguration config)
{
@@ -355,5 +694,6 @@ namespace MarketData.Generator.Momentum
MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("MomentumGenertor.GenerateMomentum:{0} candidates",momentumCandidates.Count()));
return momentumCandidates;
}
*/
}
}