using System; using System.Collections.Generic; using MarketData.MarketDataModel; using MarketData.DataAccess; using MarketData.Utils; using System.Linq; using MarketData.Numerical; using MarketData.Cache; using System.Configuration; // Filename: MGSHMomentumGenerator.cs // Author:Sean Kessler // Date:02/2025 // Summary: This model was adapted from th MGMomentum model. This new model adds the following new functionality // 1) Places stop limits on positions. This is configurable // 2) Incorporates ability to buy a hedge position. This is configurable // 3) The model does not sell all positions at month end. Instead, it holds positions until they stop out. This is configurable //BetaGenerator.Beta(symbol,tradeDate,cmtParams.BetaMonths); // beta months is 6 namespace MarketData.Generator.MGSHMomentum { /// Generate momentum selections - public class MGSHMomentumGenerator { public enum MomentumGeneratorConstants{DayCount=252}; // Trading days in one year private MGSHMomentumGenerator() { } // These two interfaces are used by the UI so that it can capture the fallback candidates public static MGSHMomentumCandidates GenerateMomentum(DateTime tradeDate,MGSHConfiguration config) { List symbolsHeld=new List(); return new MGSHMomentumCandidates(GenerateMomentum(tradeDate,symbolsHeld,config).Take(config.MaxPositions).ToList()); } public static MGSHMomentumCandidates GenerateMomentumWithFallback(DateTime tradeDate,MGSHConfiguration config) { List symbolsHeld=new List(); MGSHMomentumCandidates momentumCandidates=GenerateMomentum(tradeDate,symbolsHeld,config); MGSHQualityIndicator qualityIndicator=new MGSHQualityIndicator(config.QualityIndicatorType); if((null==momentumCandidates||0==momentumCandidates.Count)&&config.UseFallbackCandidate) { QualityIndicatorCandidate bestCandidate=null; if(null!=config.FallbackCandidateBestOf && !"".Equals(config.FallbackCandidateBestOf)) { bestCandidate=CandidateSelector.SelectBestCandidate(qualityIndicator,Utility.ToList(config.FallbackCandidateBestOf),config.FallbackCandidate,tradeDate); if(null!=bestCandidate) { MGSHMomentumCandidate momentumCandidate=new MGSHMomentumCandidate(); momentumCandidate.Symbol=bestCandidate.Symbol; momentumCandidate.AnalysisDate=tradeDate; momentumCandidate.CumReturn252=bestCandidate.CumReturn252; momentumCandidate.IDIndicator=bestCandidate.IDIndicator; momentumCandidate.Score=bestCandidate.Score; momentumCandidate.DayCount=bestCandidate.DayCount; momentumCandidate.PE=bestCandidate.PE; momentumCandidate.Beta=bestCandidate.Beta; momentumCandidate.Return1D=bestCandidate.Return1D; momentumCandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates(); momentumCandidates.Add(momentumCandidate); } } } return momentumCandidates; } // This interface is called by the Backtest public static MGSHMomentumCandidates GenerateMomentum(DateTime tradeDate,List symbolsHeld,MGSHConfiguration config) { DateGenerator dateGenerator=new DateGenerator(); List symbols=PricingDA.GetSymbols(); MGSHMomentumCandidates momentumCandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates(); MGSHMomentumCandidates highPECandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates(); DateTime startDateOfReturns=dateGenerator.GetPrevMonthEnd(tradeDate,2); List noTradeSymbols=Utility.ToList(config.NoTradeSymbols); List noTradeFinancialSymbols=Utility.ToList(config.NoTradeFinancialSymbols); CandidateViolations candidateViolations = new CandidateViolations(); MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("Generate momentum.. examining candidates")); // Go through the universe of stocks for(int index=0;indexx.Equals(symbol, StringComparison.CurrentCultureIgnoreCase))) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate already held.")); continue; } // Check if the symbol is in the no trade list (i.e.) Bitcoin etc., if(noTradeSymbols.Any(x=>x.Equals(symbol, StringComparison.CurrentCultureIgnoreCase))) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate in NoTradeSymbol.")); continue; } // Check MarketCap, EBITDA, PE, and Revenue Per Share Fundamental fundamental=FundamentalDA.GetFundamentalMaxDate(symbol,tradeDate); if(null==fundamental) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate no fundamental.")); continue; } if(!(fundamental.MarketCap>=config.MarketCapLowerLimit)) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate MarketCapLimit.")); continue; } if(config.UseEBITDAScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.EBITDA)||fundamental.EBITDA<=0)) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate EBITDA violation.")); continue; } if(config.UseRevenuePerShareScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.RevenuePerShare)||fundamental.RevenuePerShare<0.00)) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate RevenuePerShare violation.")); continue; } // Initial PE screening. This screen checks for existance of PE and if it is availabe it must be >0.00 . There is another PE based on limits further below if(config.UsePEScreen && (double.IsNaN(fundamental.PE)||fundamental.PE<=0.00)) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate PE violation.")); continue; } // Exclude any company in the "Financial" sector CompanyProfile companyProfile=CompanyProfileDA.GetCompanyProfile(symbol); if(null!=companyProfile&&null!=companyProfile.Sector&&noTradeFinancialSymbols.Any(x=>x.Equals(companyProfile.Sector))) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate Financial Sector violation.")); continue; } // Fetch single day price Price price=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrice(symbol,tradeDate); if(null==price) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate missing price on trade date.")); continue; } // Filter penny stocks - don't trade anything less than $1.00 if(price.Close<1.00||price.Open<1.00) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate penny stock violation.")); continue; } // Retrieve prices Prices prices=null; prices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(symbol,tradeDate,(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount); if(null==prices||prices.Count!=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate missing price history.")); continue; } // calculate the one day return double return1D=prices.GetReturn1D(); // Liquidity check - if any day has volume < 10,000 then we reject it if(((from Price xPrice in prices where xPrice.Volume<10000 select xPrice).Count())>1) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Liquidity violation.")); continue; } // Calculate velocity as a percentage range of the open price within the 252+20 day range of prices - This is used for display purposes double velocity; Prices velocityPrices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(symbol,tradeDate,(int)MGSHMomentumGenerator.MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount+20); double priceHigh=(from Price selectPrice in velocityPrices select selectPrice.Open).Max(); double priceLow=(from Price selectPrice in velocityPrices select selectPrice.Open).Min(); if(0.00==priceHigh-priceLow)velocity=0.00; else velocity=((price.Open-priceLow)*(100/(priceHigh-priceLow)))/100.00; // Price slopes - These are used for display purposes double[] pricesArray=null; LeastSquaresResult leastSquaresResult; // Beta - first capture the fundamental beta and then determine whether we will calculate our own double beta = fundamental.Beta; if(config.UseBetaGenerator) { beta = BetaGenerator.Beta(symbol, config.UseBetaGeneratorMonths, false); if(double.IsNaN(beta)) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"No Beta violation.")); continue; } } // Get the benchmark pricing low pricing data and check the slope of previous lows; only if Beta of candidate is >= LowSlopeBetaThreshhold // The idea behind this check is that a high beta stock will track to the benchmark. So if the benchmark lows are forming a downward pattern then we // assume that this is a somewhat bearish condition. The config has the setting at a 15 day check and the threshold beta set to 1.00 if(config.UseLowSlopeBetaCheck && beta >= config.LowSlopeBetaThreshhold) { Prices benchmarkPrices=GBPriceCache.GetInstance().GetPrices(config.Benchmark,tradeDate,config.LowSlopeBetaDays); pricesArray=Numerics.ToDouble(benchmarkPrices.GetPricesLow()); leastSquaresResult=Numerics.LeastSquares(pricesArray); double slopeBmk=leastSquaresResult.Slope; if(slopeBmk<0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Beta threshhold violation.")); continue; } } // *** MACDSignal detection if(config.UseMACD) { MACDSetup macdSetup=new MACDSetup(config.MACDSetup); MACDSignals macdSignals=MACDGenerator.GenerateMACD(prices,macdSetup); Signals signalsMACD = SignalGenerator.GenerateSignals(macdSignals); signalsMACD=new Signals(signalsMACD.Take(config.MACDSignalDays).ToList()); int weakSellSignals=(from Signal signal in signalsMACD where signal.IsWeakSell() select signal).Count(); int strongSellSignals=(from Signal signal in signalsMACD where signal.IsStrongSell() select signal).Count(); if(config.MACDRejectWeakSellSignals && weakSellSignals>0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"MACD Reject Weak Sell violation.")); continue; } if(config.MACDRejectStrongSellSignals && strongSellSignals>0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"MACD Reject Strong Sell violation.")); continue; } } // *** Stochastics oscillator if(config.UseStochastics) { Stochastics stochastics=StochasticsGenerator.GenerateStochastics(prices); Signals signalsStochastics=new Signals(SignalGenerator.GenerateSignals(stochastics).OrderByDescending(x => x.SignalDate).ToList()); signalsStochastics=new Signals(signalsStochastics.Take(config.StochasticsSignalDays).ToList()); int weakSellCount=(from Signal signal in signalsStochastics where signal.IsWeakSell() select signal).Count(); int strongSellCount=(from Signal signal in signalsStochastics where signal.IsStrongSell() select signal).Count(); if(config.StochasticsRejectStrongSells&&strongSellCount>0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Stochastics Oscillator Reject Strong Sell violation.")); continue; } if(config.StochasticsRejectWeakSells&&weakSellCount>0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Stochastics Oscillator Reject Weak Sell violation.")); continue; } } // Analyst Ratings - "Downgrades" that are more than a year old (252 days) are not considered. Mean reversion.... bad companies improve, good companies decline. DateTime minRatingDate=dateGenerator.GenerateHistoricalDate(startDateOfReturns,(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount); AnalystRatings analystRatings=AnalystRatingsDA.GetAnalystRatingsMaxDateNoZacks(symbol,tradeDate); analystRatings.RemoveAll(x => x.Date.50 select value).Count()>0) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate pricing contains outliers in the returns.")); continue; } // Cumulative return double cumulativeReturn=prices.GetCumulativeReturn(); if(cumulativeReturn<.10) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"Candidate cumulative returns below threshhold.")); continue; } // Apply the PEScreening last because there an option to permit the inclusion of the high PE candidates if we have no other available candidates. // The idea is to try to avoid high PE stocks as they are more likey to introduce drawdowns as backtests have shown. if(config.UseMaxPEScreen && !double.IsNaN(fundamental.PE) && fundamental.PE>config.MaxPE) { candidateViolations.Add(new CandidateViolation(symbol,"PE violation.")); MGSHMomentumCandidate highPECandidate=new MGSHMomentumCandidate(); highPECandidate.AnalysisDate=tradeDate; highPECandidate.Symbol=symbol; highPECandidate.CumReturn252=prices.GetCumulativeReturn(); highPECandidate.DayCount=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount; highPECandidate.IDIndicator=IDIndicator.Calculate(prices); highPECandidate.Score=ScoreIndicator.Calculate(prices); highPECandidate.PE=fundamental.PE; highPECandidate.Beta=beta; highPECandidate.Velocity=velocity; highPECandidate.Volume=price.Volume; highPECandidate.Return1D=return1D; highPECandidates.Add(highPECandidate); continue; } // *********************************************************************** C A N D I D A T E A C C E P T A N C E ******************************************************* // At this point whatever remains is taken so initialize the candidate and add to list MGSHMomentumCandidate momentumCandidate=new MGSHMomentumCandidate(); momentumCandidate.AnalysisDate=tradeDate; momentumCandidate.Symbol=symbol; momentumCandidate.CumReturn252=prices.GetCumulativeReturn(); momentumCandidate.DayCount=(int)MomentumGeneratorConstants.DayCount; momentumCandidate.IDIndicator=IDIndicator.Calculate(prices); momentumCandidate.Score=ScoreIndicator.Calculate(prices); momentumCandidate.PE=fundamental.PE; momentumCandidate.Beta=beta; momentumCandidate.Velocity=velocity; momentumCandidate.Volume=price.Volume; momentumCandidate.Return1D=return1D; momentumCandidates.Add(momentumCandidate); } // for all symbols if(0!=candidateViolations.Count) { MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,"**************** C A N D I D A T E S U M M A R Y ************************"); IEnumerable> groups = candidateViolations.GroupBy(x => x.ReasonCategory).OrderByDescending(group => group.Count()).Select(group => Tuple.Create(group.Key, group.Count())); foreach(Tuple group in groups) { MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("Group: {0} Count:{1}",group.Item1, group.Item2)); } } MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Considered : {momentumCandidates.Count+candidateViolations.Count}")); MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Disqualified : {candidateViolations.Count}")); MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format($"Total Eligible : {momentumCandidates.Count}")); MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,"******************************************************************************************************"); // ********************************************************* E N D C A N D I D A T E S E L E C T I O N C R I T E R I A **************************************** // If we wind up with less than the number of required candidates then check the StrictMaxPE // flag and, if allowed, add the highPECandidate (that we've accumulated but skipped) to the momentumCandidates ordering them by the Lowest PE if(!config.StrictMaxPE && momentumCandidates.Count0) { int takeCandidates=config.MaxPositions-momentumCandidates.Count; highPECandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates(highPECandidates.OrderBy(x=>x.PE).Take(takeCandidates).ToList()); momentumCandidates.AddRange(highPECandidates); if(config.Verbose)MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("High PE Candidates,{0}",Utility.FromList((from MGSHMomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in highPECandidates select momentumCandidate.Symbol).ToList()))); } MGSHQualityIndicator qualityIndicator=new MGSHQualityIndicator(config.QualityIndicatorType); if(qualityIndicator.Quality.Equals(MGSHQualityIndicator.QualityType.IDIndicator)) { momentumCandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates((from MGSHMomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in momentumCandidates orderby momentumCandidate.IDIndicator ascending, momentumCandidate.CumReturn252 descending, momentumCandidate.Return1D descending, momentumCandidate.Volume descending select momentumCandidate).ToList()); } else { momentumCandidates=new MGSHMomentumCandidates((from MGSHMomentumCandidate momentumCandidate in momentumCandidates orderby momentumCandidate.Score descending,momentumCandidate.CumReturn252 descending,momentumCandidate.Return1D descending,momentumCandidate.Volume descending select momentumCandidate).ToList()); } MDTrace.WriteLine(LogLevel.DEBUG,String.Format("MomentumGenertor.GenerateMomentum:{0} candidates",momentumCandidates.Count())); return momentumCandidates; } } }